Post-Labor Day Election Sprint Sees Pres. Trump Lapping The Competition

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CLEVELAND, OH - JULY 21: Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump acknowledges the crowd after his daughter, Ivanka Trump, introduced him during the evening session on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention on July 21, 2016 at the Quicken Loans Arena in Cleveland, Ohio. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump received the number of votes needed to secure the party's nomination. An estimated 50,000 people are expected in Cleveland, including hundreds of protesters and members of the media. The four-day Republican National Convention kicked off on July 18. (Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)
(Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images)

Labor Day normally indicates that election season is coming into focus. While 2023 is not an official election year per se, the Iowa caucus is scheduled for January 15th, 2024.

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As candidates gear up for a final sprint towards possibly winning the Republican nomination for president, former President Donald Trump is currently lapping the competition, according to the majority of polling data available. 

A recent Wall Street Journal poll revealed that Trump is the top choice of 59% of GOP primary voters. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis comes in at a distant second place with 13%, a 46% difference. Every GOP candidate combined only makes up 39% which still ultimately trails Trump by 20%.

This massive discrepancy even led the Wall Street Journal to declare that “Trump, for now, has no formidable challenger.”

Trump is leading the GOP field by nearly 40%, according to RealClearPolitics polling average. Trump is up by 36% in a new YouGov/Economist poll. Trump is up 44% in a new Morning Consult poll. Trump is up 38% in a new Emerson College poll. Trump is up 45% in a new Messenger poll. 

“We will not play prevent defense,” Trump told a New Hampshire crowd in early August. 

Trump has seen considerable success in general election polling against President Joe Biden as well. YouGov/Economist shows Trump leading Biden 44% to 43%. Emerson College has Trump up 46% to 44%. The Wall Street Journal showed Trump and Biden tied at 46%.

“It is kind of shocking in a way that, despite all of the baggage that Donald Trump carries, he’s tied with Joe Biden right now,” ABC anchor George Stephanopoulos said.

That baggage – four indictments and numerous upcoming trials – is not sticking with voters right now. In fact, more than 60% of GOP primary voters believe the Trump indictments are politically motivated, according to the Wall Street Journal poll. 

Trump faces a packed spring when it comes to legal issues. The 45th president is scheduled to appear in two major trials just 77 days apart next year.

The first is his federal case in Washington, DC on March 4, 2024 and the second is set for May 20, 2024 in Florida regarding his alleged mishandling of classified materials. 

Despite this, Trump is neck and neck with Biden across all polling sites, according to RealClearPolitics polling average. For context, RealClearPolitics polling average showed Trump trailing Biden by more than seven percent heading into the 2020 election. The same site had former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leading Trump by more than three percent in November 2016.

One could certainly argue based on these numbers that Trump is better positioned to reclaim the White House now than he ever has been.


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