Poland President on the Plan to Turn Trump against Russia

- May 06, 2024

Andrzej Duda's meeting coincided with a shift in Donald Trump's and Republican policy on aiding Ukraine. | Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

The Polish government believes it has a secret weapon to shift Donald Trump against Russian leader Vladimir Putin — the country's out-of-power populists.

When the U.S. Congress unblocked a $60.8 billion aid package to Ukraine in late April, lawmakers from Poland's now-opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party were quick to proclaim that it was thanks to the influence of one of their own, President Andrzej Duda, who just days earlier met with Trump in his gold-studded eponymous tower in New York for a two-and-half-hour chat to discuss Ukraine’s military needs, as well as meeting with House Speaker Mike Johnson.

"A big round of applause for President Andrzej Duda, who has gained powerful resources to fight Russian imperialism," Dariusz Matecki, a PiS lawmaker,

“President Andrzej Duda can have a full sense of a job well done for Poland and the entire region,” added Marcin Przydacz, another PiS MP.

And in politically divided Poland — where the government led by PM Donald Tusk and PiS war over everything from the EU to abortion, public television, rule of law, a project to build a new airport and even electric cars — there is rare agreement on the need to butter up Trump.

"I trust that during the New York meeting the president took the Polish government's recommendation and presented the Polish point of view on security issues," tweeted Tusk, an old foe of Duda's. "In these matters we need maximum agreement and minimum controversy."

The reason is that both sides are united on the risk posed by Russia, and on the danger of the U.S. pulling out of NATO and abandoning Europe under a second Trump presidency.

But Poland's overriding national interest can be difficult to translate in the U.S.

To the dismay of PiS, the narrative of Duda's triumph quickly turned into a Polish joke, immortalized in countless Polish memes and even a song, while "The Late Show" host Stephen Colbert mocked the Polish president for “sucking up to Trump” and meeting with him “all the doodah day.”

But jokes aside, Duda's meeting coincided with a shift in Trump's and Republican policy on aiding Ukraine.

Within a day of the meeting, Trump, who previously spoke favorably of Putin and blamed Ukraine for his own political woes, took to his social media platform to declare: “As everyone agrees, Ukrainian Survival and Strength should be much more important to Europe than to us, but it is also important to us! GET MOVING EUROPE!”

My buddy Duda

Trump loves nothing more than having his ego stroked, and PiS and Duda have a lot of practice in schmoozing the Donald.

PiS politicians are regular speakers at conservative gatherings in the U.S.; Duda was one of the lone international holdouts on congratulating Joe Biden for winning the 2020 election, and in 2018 the PiS government even mulled naming a base in Poland "Fort Trump" to entice the White House to station U.S. troops in Poland.

Duda and Zelenskyy walk to a press conference in Kyiv, six months after Russia's invasion. | Alexey Furman/Getty Images

Along with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Poland's PiS has long been part of Trump's universe of favored European parties. The presumptive Republican nominee flaunted his fondness for Duda when the two met in New York.

"[Duda] is my friend and we had four great years together and we may have to do it again," Trump said. "We're behind Poland all the way ... I have great respect for this country, and I have great respect for the president."

Although Poland's current government is very wary of Trump — Tusk previously called out Trump for his "anti-Ukrainian sentiment" and "pro-Russian attitude" and chivied Johnson to get moving on the aid package — the dinner with Duda had Warsaw's blessing.

In a March video posted on social media, Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski urged Polish nationalists and conservatives to take advantage of their supposed special relationship with Trump.

“Ukraine needs the support … which is why I appeal to our nationalists, to those who supported Donald Trump … by making the Polish public believe that they have a special relationship with [him]. This is the moment to use that influence, if it really exists.”

Sikorski later approved Duda's talking points on Ukraine ahead of the meeting with Trump.

The foreign affairs chief told Axel Springer, POLITICO's parent company, in an interview last week that Trump’s stance on Ukraine is “not as black and white as some people” think.

“Donald Trump was right in urging us all in Europe to spend more on defense,” Sikorski said in the interview, adding that Trump also sent Ukraine anti-tank missiles “before the war when others were not doing it.”

Whispering to power

Duda also met with Speaker Johnson, who bucked radicals in his own Republican Party to push the aid package through.

“Duda is our Republican whisperer,” Michał Baranowski, who leads the German Marshall Fund’s Poland office, previously told POLITICO.

Still, Duda's role can be over-egged. U.S. politics are rarely shifted dramatically by outsiders.

EU lawmaker Andrzej Halicki, Tusk’s right hand in Brussels, laughed off the idea that Duda and PiS could have single-handedly changed Trump's mind on Ukraine.

"Nonsense," he told POLITICO, calling such statements by PiS lawmakers a "ridiculous spin narrative."

But Tusk's government does see the advantage in having Trump's ear.

“Sometimes you have to play several pianos and use different diplomatic channels to get what you want,” Halicki said.

However, most political analysts agree that Duda's meeting with Trump, and the latter's subsequent change of tone on Ukraine, was more likely due to fortuitous timing than Polish persuasion.

“This get-together between President Andrzej Duda and former President Donald Trump was probably nice … but in this case it didn't matter. Let's not exaggerate,” political scientist Zbigniew Lewicki told Poland's Fakt newspaper.

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